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		<title>Compound Interest Is Devouring the Federal Budget</title>
		<link>https://parrhesiastes.net/2025/12/compound-interest-is-devouring-the-federal-budget/#utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=compound-interest-is-devouring-the-federal-budget</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Slavko]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2025 19:14:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blogs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ellen Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scheerpost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web Of Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austerity and Tax Hikes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Compound Interest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Revaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government-issued money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantitative easing (QE)]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[trillion-dollar coins]]></category>
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<p>The post <a href="https://parrhesiastes.net/2025/12/compound-interest-is-devouring-the-federal-budget/">Compound Interest Is Devouring the Federal Budget</a> appeared first on <a href="https://parrhesiastes.net">Parrhesiastes.net</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wpb-content-wrapper" id="wpb-content-root"><div class="container"><section ><div class="box big-box"><div class="vc_row wpb_row "><div class="wpb_column vc_column_container col-md-12"><div class="vc_column-inner"><div class="wpb_wrapper"><div class="vc_separator wpb_content_element vc_separator_align_center vc_sep_shadow vc_sep_border_width_4 vc_sep_pos_align_center wpb_content_element vc_separator-has-text"   style="width: 100%;"><span class="vc_sep_holder vc_sep_holder_l"><span style="color:#75D69C;" class="vc_sep_line"></span></span><h4>Compound Interest Is Devouring the Federal Budget</h4><span class="vc_sep_holder vc_sep_holder_r"><span style="color:#75D69C;" class="vc_sep_line"></span></span>
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			<h2 class="title" style="text-align: center;" title="Permalink to: Compound Interest Is Devouring the Federal Budget: It’s Time to Take Back the Money Power">It’s Time to Take Back the Money Power</h2>
<p>By Ellen Brown for Scheerpost</p>

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			<p style="text-align: left;">Albert Einstein is often quoted as saying that compound interest is “the most powerful force in the universe.” The quote is probably apocryphal, but it reflects a mathematical truth. Interest on earlier interest grows exponentially, outrunning the linear growth of revenue and eventually consuming everything.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">That is where the United States now stands. The government does pay the interest on its debt every year, but it is having to pay it with borrowed money. The interest curve is rising exponentially, while the tax base is not.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-35023 size-full" src="https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5.png" alt="" width="640" height="261" srcset="https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5.png 640w, https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-300x122.png 300w, https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-5-440x179.png 440w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Interest is now the fastest growing line item in the entire federal budget. The government paid <a href="https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/sizing-up-interest-payments-on-the-national-debt/">$970 billion in net interest</a> in FY2025, more than the Pentagon budget and rapidly closing in on Social Security. It already exceeds spending on Medicare and national defense and is second only to Social Security. The <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/interest-debt-grow-past-1-trillion-next-year">Congressional Budget Office projects</a> that interest will reach nearly $1.8 trillion by 2035 and will cost taxpayers $13.8 trillion over the next decade. That is roughly what Social Security will pay out over the same decade (about $1.6 trillion a year). The Social Security Trust Fund is running dry, not because there are too many seniors, but because interest payments are consuming the federal budget that should be shoring it up.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-35024 size-full" src="https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-6.png" alt="" width="640" height="480" srcset="https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-6.png 640w, https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-6-300x225.png 300w, https://parrhesiastes.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-6-440x330.png 440w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Critics accuse the U.S. of “printing dollars” and exporting inflation, but it is not the government that is printing these dollars. <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262017752/getting-it-wrong/">Most of the money supply</a> in modern economies consists of deposits <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy">created by private banks</a> when they make loans.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Meanwhile, the producing economy is suffocating. The <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL">money supply (M2)</a> has not shrunk, but it is largely trapped in reserves, financial assets and corporate balance sheets. Households are short of cash, wages are too low and demand is suppressed. What the real economy needs is liquidity directed to productivity, not locked in speculative pools.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">However, every year more of the nation’s income is diverted to bondholders instead of workers, infrastructure or production. This is not “borrowing from the future.” It is tribute — a structural transfer of public wealth to private creditors for the use of our own money — money that is legally backed by the full faith and credit of the American people and could and should be created by our representative government.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Why the Usual Solutions Can’t Stop the Interest Spiral.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">As the debt burden grows, policymakers are floating a variety of proposals. But none of them addresses the structural problem: the exponentially growing interest on the debt.</p>
<h4><strong>1. Quantitative Easing (QE).</strong></h4>
<p style="text-align: left;">Some analysts argue that the Federal Reserve will soon be forced back into QE, injecting reserves into banks by buying Treasuries. But even if the Fed bought the entire debt tomorrow, taxpayers would still owe the same trillion dollar interest bill. The payments would simply shift from pension funds and foreign central banks to commercial banks.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The Fed is <a href="https://thefga.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Federal-Reserve-Interest-paper-7-30-25.pdf">required to remit its profits</a> to the Treasury after deducting its costs. But since 2008, it has paid interest on bank reserves held at the Fed (IORB). That tab now runs at more than $100 billion annually and is consuming the Fed’s profits, which the Fed pays to banks instead of remitting them to the Treasury. (For a fuller explanation, see my earlier article <a href="https://ellenbrown.com/2025/05/11/president-trumps-proposal-to-eliminate-income-taxes-can-it-be-done/">here</a>.) When bonds are transferred to the Fed through QE, the debt service remains; only the postal address changes where the checks are mailed.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: left;"><strong>2. Stablecoins.</strong></h4>
<p style="text-align: left;">Pegging government liabilities to crypto tokens also does not eliminate interest costs. Stablecoins merely replace lost creditors with new ones. The government still pays the interest — only to a different set of holders.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: left;"><strong>3. Gold Revaluation.</strong></h4>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.usmint.gov/about/tours-and-locations/fort-knox">Fort Knox holds</a> about 147 million ounces of gold. At statutory book value ($42/oz), it is recorded at about $6 billion; at current market prices (around $4,000/oz), it would be worth roughly $589 billion. That’s a dramatic increase, but it covers less than a single year of interest payments. Gold revaluation generates too little to fix the problem.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: left;"><strong>4. Asset Sales.</strong></h4>
<p style="text-align: left;">Selling federal land or auctioning off slices of the public airwaves to private carriers can generate one-off proceeds but not recurring flows. They too cannot sustainably cover annual interest obligations.</p>
<h4 style="text-align: left;"><strong>5. Austerity and Tax Hikes.</strong></h4>
<p style="text-align: left;">Austerity shrinks GDP and worsens the debt to GDP ratio, and tax hikes cannot keep up with exponential interest growth.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Restoring the Treasury’s Sovereign Money-Creating Power.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">It may be time to reconsider a proposal made in the early 1980s, when the idea of minting some large denomination coins to solve economic problems was suggested by a chairman of the Coinage Subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives. He pointed out that the government could pay off its entire debt with some billion-dollar coins. The Constitution gives Congress the power “<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S8-C5-1/ALDE_00001066/">to coin money [and] regulate the value thereof</a>,” and it places no limit on the value of the coins it creates.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Capitalizing on the seigniorage from minting coins — the difference between their production costs and face value — is now done routinely by the Treasury. When the Mint produces a quarter, the Fed buys it at face value ($.25), even though it <a href="https://www.coinnews.net/2024/02/09/penny-costs-3-07-cents-to-make-in-2023-nickel-costs-11-54-cents-us-mint-realizes-249m-in-seigniorage/">costs only about $.12</a> to make – a 100% profit. This just needs to be done in much larger numbers.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">In <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/31/5112">legislation initiated in 1982</a>, Congress imposed limits on the amounts and denominations of most coins. The one exception was the platinum coin, which a special provision allowed to be minted in any amount for commemorative purposes.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">In 2013, with the endless gridlock in Congress over the debt ceiling, the idea was proposed to capitalize on this loophole and mint some trillion-dollar platinum coins. Philip Diehl, former head of the US Mint and co-author of the platinum coin law, confirmed that the coin would be legal tender. <a href="https://mintthecoin.org/how/">He stated</a>, “In minting the $1 trillion platinum coin, the Treasury Secretary would be exercising authority which Congress has granted routinely for more than 220 years . . . under power expressly granted to Congress in the Constitution (Article 1, Section 8).”</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Modern Monetary Theory</strong> [MMT] economists, including <a href="https://moslereconomics.com/2011/01/20/joe-firestone-post-on-sidestepping-the-debt-ceiling-issue-with-coin-seigniorage/">Warren Mosler</a> and <a href="https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2013/01/l-randall-wray-update-on-trillion.html">Prof. Randall Wray</a>, showed that the coin would work operationally: it would be deposited at the Fed, crediting the Treasury’s account without circulating in the consumer economy. Spending would still require Congressional approval, but financing would no longer depend on bond markets.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">But the coin was dismissed as a gimmick, and the debt ceiling crisis was resolved by simply raising the ceiling. Today, however, with compound interest threatening to devour the entire budget, that solution won’t work. It’s time to look again at a financial innovation employed by our founding fathers to win the American Revolution and the Civil War — government-issued money.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Remembering Our Roots.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">The battle over who has the privilege of creating the money supply — government or banks — has raged for centuries. Today, private banks have won that battle. But it hasn’t always been this way.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Benjamin Franklin was called “the Father of Paper Money.” He argued before the British Parliament that government issued money had allowed the colonies to escape the burden of debt, to thrive and grow. The king, urged by the Bank of England, responded by forbidding all new issues of paper scrip. The colonial economy then sank into a depression, and the colonists rebelled. They won the revolution, but the power to create money for which they had fought was lost to a private banking oligarchy modeled on the one dominated by the Bank of England.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">In 1862, President Lincoln boldly took back the money power during the Civil War. To avoid exorbitant interest rates on loans from British backed bankers of 24% to 36%, he had the U.S. Treasury print money directly as U.S. Notes or “Greenbacks,” nearly doubling the money supply. The Greenbacks were key to funding not only the Union’s victory in the war but an array of pivotal infrastructure projects, including a transcontinental railway system, land-grant colleges, and the homestead system. Prices did go up, but it was <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Monetary-1867-1960-National-Economic-Publications-ebook/dp/B0046A9M8G">due to a lack of supply</a> rather than increased demand, as the production of consumer goods was diverted to war.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Unfortunately, Lincoln was assassinated, and the Greenback program was quickly discontinued. Repeated popular attempts to revive it failed. Coins were the backbone of the money supply when the country was founded, but they shrank in significance over the nineteenth century, as bank-created deposits backed by loans grew in importance. By the time modern monetary statistics were available, physical currency had become a minor part of the money supply, and today coins are only a tiny percentage of it.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Enter the Federal Reserve: Who Does the Central Bank Serve?</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">In an April 2025 essay titled “<a href="https://michael-hudson.com/2025/04/how-private-banking-replaced-public-money/">How Private Banking Replaced Public Money</a>,” economist Michael Hudson wrote, “Money has always been a product of the government, but in the late 19<sup>th</sup> century, banking began to be thoroughly privatized and taken out of the hands of any government that controlled it.” The 1913 Federal Reserve Act entrenched this privatization, aligning monetary power with banks rather than democratic government. In a Sept. 2022 interview on <a href="https://michael-hudson.com/2022/09/on-the-federal-reserve-with-ralph-nader/">The Ralph Nader Radio Hour</a>, Hudson argued:</p>
<blockquote><p>
&#8220;It was the Treasury that organized the internal improvements for America – the Erie Canal, the roads, all of the spending into the economy. And the Federal Reserve was created to stop social purpose spending by the government, by essentially cutting the Treasury out of the monetary management process. … The role of central banks is to prevent the government from spending money on social programs and to support the commercial banks in lending money to inflate the asset markets – real estate primarily, also stocks and bonds to support private raids of corporations. And essentially, because their product is debt, to load the corporate sector down with debt. . . .&#8221;
</p></blockquote>
<p style="text-align: left;">This bias is evident not just in the interest on reserves that the Fed pays to banks — profits that should be returned to the Treasury — but in its use of quantitative easing.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">In response to the 2008–09 financial crisis, the Fed bailed out profligate megabanks by issuing <a href="https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2010/q2/pdf/hornstein.pdf">over $2 trillion in reserves</a>, simply by creating the money on a computer screen. Congress, the White House, and the Treasury all acquiesced. But when it was proposed in 2013 that the government bail itself out of its budget woes by minting two trillion-dollar coins, the Federal Reserve said it would not accept the Treasury’s legal tender; and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/white-house-denies-call-for-trillion-dollar-coin-to-avoid-debt-ceiling/">the White House again acquiesced</a>. Somehow it has become acceptable for the Fed to create money for banks, but not for the Treasury to create money for the people — although the Constitution explicitly empowers it to do so.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Inflation Safeguards.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">Trillion-dollar coins can evoke images of million-mark notes filling wheelbarrows. But as <a href="http://michael-hudson.com/2012/08/financial-predators-v-labor-industry-and-democracy/">Prof. Hudson has observed</a>, “Every hyperinflation in history has been caused by foreign debt service collapsing the exchange rate. The problem almost always has resulted from wartime foreign currency strains, not domestic spending.”</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Critics point to the COVID-19 stimulus checks as proof that increasing the circulating money supply causes inflation. But a cross-country study published in 2024 <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32532">by Olivier Blanchard and Ben Bernanke</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/an-analysis-of-pandemic-era-inflation-in-11-economies/">another by Brookings economists</a> showed that the 2021–22 spike was driven mainly by supply shocks in food and energy, not excess demand.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Whether minting trillion-dollar coins would inflate consumer prices depends on how the funds are used. Conventional theory says that inflating the money supply inflates prices — “too much money is chasing too few goods.” But the converse is also true: if the new money is invested in domestic manufacturing, construction and infrastructure, it can stabilize prices by expanding productive capacity, increasing supply.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">This principle was demonstrated in a 1997 paper by U.K. Prof. <a href="https://www.richardwerner.org/">Richard Werner</a> titled “<a href="https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/36569/">Towards a New Monetary Paradigm</a>: A Quantity Theorem of Disaggregated Credit.” Drawing on Japanese data, he showed that credit needs to be split into two separate circulations:</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">• Productive credit — loans for factories, R&amp;D, and infrastructure — which tracks GDP growth almost one to one without raising consumer prices.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">• Financial credit — loans for asset speculation — which fuels bubbles and crashes.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">When the government pays $1 trillion a year in interest, that money flows into financial markets, bidding up assets and widening inequality. It does not build factories, housing, or infrastructure. Retiring interest-bearing debt with a non-interest-bearing coin thus removes a major inflation driver.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">New money created by the government to retire existing debt would go to bondholders, most of whom are institutional investors, pension funds, or foreign central banks. They are not buying groceries. Their goal is to invest their profits or savings in a secure vehicle that pays some interest. If their bond money were returned to them, they would no doubt just shift the funds to some other low risk investment vehicles, perhaps municipal bonds or money market funds.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Meanwhile, the Treasury’s savings could be redirected into infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, and development, expanding supply in domestic markets, causing supply to rise with demand and keeping prices stable.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>China’s Precedent.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">Among other precedents, China’s remarkable growth is the closest modern parallel to what U.S. government-issued currency focused on infrastructure and development could achieve. From Jan. 1996 to Sept. 2025, <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m2">China’s M2 money supply grew by 5,600%</a> (from 5,840.10 CNY Billion to 98,146.60 CNY Billion), while consumer price inflation averaged under 2%. New money was channeled into fixed capital formation — high speed rail (<a href="https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202401/09/content_WS659ceacdc6d0868f4e8e2e35.html">45,000 km built</a>), ports, airports, 5G networks, and housing. The resulting productivity surge absorbed the monetary expansion without price inflation.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Medieval Tally Sticks.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">England’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tally_stick">tally stick system</a> illustrated the same logic centuries earlier. Tallies — split hazelwood rods recording debts — functioned as currency for seven centuries. The Exchequer created tallies on demand to pay soldiers, builders, and suppliers. The sticks recorded IOUs that circulated as money and were accepted in payment of taxes. The system ended not because it failed but for political reasons. Ironically, when the surplus sticks were burned in 1834 in the furnace beneath the House of Lords, the fire set the building ablaze and destroyed Parliament itself.</p>

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			<h3 style="text-align: left;"><strong>Time to Take Back the Money Power.</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">There is simply not enough money in the producing economy to fund the services we desperately need, pay down the debt, and keep taxes affordable. Sovereign government-issued money is constitutional, historically proven, and — if invested in infrastructure, manufacturing and development — can actually be deflationary.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The paper money printed by the central bank and the digital money created by private banks are nowhere mentioned in the Constitution. Only Congress is given the money power — the power “to coin money [and] regulate the value thereof” — a power it executes through the Treasury. If the Federal Reserve resists accepting Treasury-minted high-denomination coins, Congress can require their acceptance by <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm">amending the Federal Reserve Act</a>, as it has done several times over the years<em>.</em></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">With interest threatening to devour the national budget, Congress’s sovereign power to issue money needs to be exercised with some coins larger than quarters and dimes. Congress needs to mint some trillion-dollar coins, as the Constitution empowers it to do.</p>

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			<p style="text-align: left;">Originally published on <a href="https://scheerpost.com/2025/12/15/compound-interest-is-devouring-the-federal-budget-its-time-to-take-back-the-money-power/">Scheerpost.com</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Shared via Creative Commons.</p>
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		<title>Dissent:  Monetary Myth-Busting</title>
		<link>https://parrhesiastes.net/2020/08/dissent-monetary-myth-busting/#utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=dissent-monetary-myth-busting</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Slavko]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2020 19:01:05 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blogs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dissent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephanie Kelton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bankruptcies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Booked]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crumbling infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deficits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiat Currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[health insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Furman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keynesian economists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Summers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mariana Mazzucato]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Levinson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Wolf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monetary Myth-Busting: An Interview With Stephanie Kelton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary sovereignty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neoclassical economists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Olivier Blanchard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pandemic]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Randall Wray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Skidelsky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[student loan debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the Peoples’ Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Understanding Modern Money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Mosler]]></category>
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			<h1 class="hide-on-small-only flow-text" style="text-align: left;">Monetary Myth-Busting: An Interview With Stephanie Kelton</h1>
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<p>The author of <strong><em>The Deficit Myth</em> o</strong>n why national debt is not an obstacle to progress—and why the government can afford to fund its priorities.</p>
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<aside class="article-meta"><a class="author url fn" title="Posts by Mark Levinson" href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/author/marklevinson" rel="author">Mark Levinson</a> ▪ August 11, 2020</aside>
<aside></aside>
<aside><span class="s1"><a href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/tag/booked" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><i>Booked</i></a></span><span class="s2"><i> is a series of interviews about new books. For this edition, Mark Levinson spoke with Stephanie Kelton, author of </i><a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/stephanie-kelton/the-deficit-myth/9781541736184/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="s3">The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy</span></a> <i>(Public Affairs).</i></span></aside>
<aside></aside>
<aside>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Mark Levinson</b></span><span class="s1"><b>:</b></span><span class="s2"><strong> Stephanie Kelton</strong>’s <i><strong>The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the Peoples’ Economy</strong> </i>is a foundational book on economic policy. If we don’t get the issue of the deficit right, we get almost nothing else right. This book couldn’t be timelier. Almost 50 million people have applied for unemployment insurance since the COVID-19 pandemic started. There has been a $3 trillion government response, much of which is expiring. The virus is still spreading in the United States, which will lead to more shutdowns and more unemployment. We are on the verge of catastrophic state and local government cutbacks. And we’re heading into an election where polls indicate that much of the American public believes that we have to address an unsustainable national debt and budget deficit. What does your book have to say to the current moment?</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Stephanie Kelton</b>: You captured the backdrop. Before the coronavirus pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was forecasting deficits in excess of a trillion dollars a year for the foreseeable future. To a lot of people that seemed alarming. Now look where we are. Since March, Congress has committed roughly $3 trillion to deal with the economic fallout related to the pandemic—all of it will add to the deficit—and they’re getting ready to add even more. This is happening on the heels of a Democratic presidential primary, where we spent the better part of a year listening to candidates put forward their agendas and, at every turn, getting dogged by the question, “How are you going to pay for it? Where is the money going to come from?” Every presidential contender—from Bernie Sanders to Amy Klobuchar—bent over backward to show how they would “pay for” their proposals without adding to the deficit. We spent a year arguing about where the money would come from, and then suddenly the world opened to a new reality. The coronavirus came, and Congress started spinning out multi-trillion-dollar spending bills, without any of these so-called “pay fors.” We had to act! And that meant adding to the deficit to fight the pandemic. That’s a perfect entry point for a book like this that speaks to the fears and anxieties that we have about deficit spending and adding to the national debt, both of which we are doing on an almost unprecedented scale right now.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: In your book you debunk a number of myths that are associated with the deficit. One widely held belief is that since households have to balance their budgets, so should the government. In 2010—when Democrats controlled the presidency and Congress, and unemployment was almost 10 percent—Barack Obama went on national television and said that, like most American families, the federal government had to tighten its belt. It was a defining moment, and the premature austerity led to an excruciatingly slow economic recovery that probably contributed to Trump’s victory in 2016. Talk about the myth of the government as a household.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: </span>I had the same reaction, and I remember the speech. It was the State of the Union address. Even before that speech, in 2009, just shortly after taking office, when we were staring down the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, [Obama] was asked in an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/obama-the-us-government-is-broke-2009-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interview</a>, “At what point do we run out of money?” And he said, “Well, we are out of money now.” That was like a punch in the gut for me. Because I sensed that what we were facing was not a garden-variety economic recession. That this was going to be orders of magnitude more severe, and that what Congress needed to do was step in to provide the fiscal support that was going to be necessary to prevent a very protracted and deep downturn. To hear him use those words was definitely not a good sign.</p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2">You ask why we analogize the federal government’s finances with personal finances. I think politicians want to be able to communicate with people effectively. And they think that the best way to communicate about complex issues, like the federal government’s finances, is to talk in ways that resonate with us. So, the framing becomes mom and dad at the kitchen table, working to balance the budget; just like you, the federal government needs to start getting its spending in line with its income. You know you can’t spend more than you take in year after year; it’s risky to pile on debt; you can go broke.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson:</b> Why is that a myth? </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: </span>The simplest way to say it is that government issues the currency, and households and businesses don’t. If you have the sole legal authority to issue the U.S. dollar—it could only come from you—would you ever worry about running out? Would you ever worry about bills coming due that you couldn’t afford to pay? Would you worry about being forced into bankruptcy? No, you wouldn’t; you’re the issuer of the currency. It’s the rest of us who have to worry. It couldn’t be clearer in this moment what makes us different from the federal government. The federal government is the one propping up the airlines (and other industries), sending out $1,200 checks to most Americans, topping up unemployment insurance with an extra $600/week (if you are fortunate enough to get the system to recognize you are unemployed), helping small businesses cover some expenses and keep their workers on payroll, and so on.</p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2">If all of us had the currency-issuer power of the federal government, then small businesses would look after themselves. The airlines would look after themselves. That’s obviously not how it works. State and local governments are begging the federal government for assistance. Governors and mayors across the country have been saying to Congress, “We need your help.” The reason is that state and local governments—like households and private businesses—can’t issue the currency. We’re all trapped in the same position, vis-à-vis the currency. We are all <i>users</i> of the dollar. The federal government is in an elevated position; it’s the issuer of the currency. It can do what the rest of us can’t do.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: Why isn’t the fact that the U.S. government is going to accrue trillions of dollars of debt a burden on future generations?</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: The deficit hawks try to convince us that at some point, it has to be paid back, and that the bill is going to fall on the rest of us. That’s not the case at all. Calling this thing the national debt is a big problem. What’s really happening is that the government is basically making some of its payments with interest-bearing dollars. We call those dollars U.S. Treasuries. Unfortunately, we call the entire stockpile of these financial instruments the national debt. And the word “debt” creates all sorts of unnecessary anxiety in people. It reminds people of their credit card debt, their car payment, their student loan debt, their mortgage, and they say, “Well, debt can be dangerous. I don’t want to be in debt. I don’t want too much debt. My country is in debt, so that’s bad.”</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: Are there limits to the deficit? Can the government just spend in an unrestrained manner? </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: There are limits. If I had to describe the <strong>Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)</strong> project in a single sentence, I would say it is about replacing an artificial <i>revenue</i> constraint with a real <i>inflation</i> constraint. So there are limits. But the limit is not a predetermined numerical level or a percentage of the budget. There is no strict financial constraint. A currency-issuing government can afford to buy whatever is priced and available for sale in its own currency. The limit is the impact of the spending. Not the spending itself, and not the deficit—the limit is inflation. That is central to MMT.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2">I would go further and say that no school of macroeconomic thought treats inflation more seriously than MMT. We place it at the center of the analytic framework. Inflation is the binding constraint. We also face ecological constraints. Just because we can extract fossil fuels and other forms of carbon-emitting, polluting sources of energy doesn’t mean we should do that. No one who has studied MMT can claim that MMT advocates unlimited spending. MMT is about identifying the real limits, and not cowering in fear of running out of money or adding to the deficit. </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: In your book, you claim that misplaced emphasis on the fiscal deficit covers up other deficits that we should be really concerned about. What do you mean by that? </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: Today, there is a yearning to return to normal. But what did normal, before the pandemic, look like? Several trillion dollars of needed repairs in our <strong>crumbling infrastructure</strong>. Normal was 87 million Americans who either didn’t have <strong>health insurance</strong> or were underinsured. Normal was 500,000 medical-related <strong><em>bankruptcies</em></strong> every single year in this country. Normal was 40 million people living in <strong>poverty.</strong> Normal was millions of people who aren’t prepared for retirement; who can’t afford to send their kids to school or can’t pay back their <strong>student loan debt</strong>. Normal was 40 percent of families not having $400 set aside to handle an unexpected financial emergency. Normal was a great city like Flint, Michigan, not having safe water. These are the deficits that matter. Those are the kinds of shortfalls that I wish that we were all worried about. </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: Explain MMT and why you become a supporter.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: When I first started writing about and researching government finance, public money, and the deficit, there was nothing called MMT. That label emerged later. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">I was in graduate school, studying economics in the mid-1990s at Cambridge University, when I won a fellowship to the Levy Economics Institute. An economist named <strong>Randall Wray</strong> was there, and he was someone I had studied under, briefly, before starting my program at Cambridge. He was working on a book called <strong><i>Understanding Modern Money</i></strong>, and that’s when I really started to dig into a lot of this stuff. I found the ideas both jarring and fascinating. It was very different from what I had learned as an undergrad studying economics, and what I had learned as a graduate student at Cambridge. Reading early drafts of Wray’s work, and also the writings of <strong>Warren Mosler,</strong> led me to begin my own research into the mechanics of monetary operations. I wanted to get down in the weeds and understand exactly how the Treasury and the Fed coordinate their payments. I started reading and researching and talking to people at the Treasury and Fed, and [after] maybe six months or so, I came to understand how government finance really works.</p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;">At that point, I realized that some of the more jarring parts of MMT—<a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/158221/government-can-afford-anythi-wants" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">like the claim that the federal government doesn’t spend “taxpayer money</a>”—were sound. I worked through the mechanics and I could see that Wray and Mosler had the sequencing right: the government spends first and then taxes or borrows. Taxes weren’t paying for anything! That was totally new to me. I had been trained to believe that the government needs our money, and that the purpose of taxing and borrowing was to help the government raise revenue to pay its bills. That’s how I was trained to think about these things. But once I persuaded myself that the sequencing that I had been taught was wrong, that the government (or one of its agents) has to spend or lend the dollars into existence before anybody can use them to pay taxes or buy government bonds, then it just flipped my worldview around. I started seeing the federal government as the issuer of the currency, and everything follows from that.</p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: Within the progressive economic community there is a debate between progressive, or left, Keynesians and some adherents of MMT. Many progressive economists argue that they arrive at the same policy conclusions as you but they don’t need MMT to get there.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: </span>It’s one thing to be right. It’s another thing to be right for the right reasons. Because if you’re right for the right reasons, there’s a higher probability that you will continue to get things right, because you’re operating with the correct analytical framework. You can be right accidentally, with a traditional <strong>neoclassical economic</strong> framework. You can also use conventional macro to demonstrate what should be intuitively obvious, like showing that austerity in the midst of a depression is bad policy, as people like <strong>Paul Krugman</strong> did during the Great Recession. Of course, MMT economists were also pressing lawmakers to embrace larger deficits. That wasn’t exactly a difficult call. But what about getting the harder things right? For example, the euro. <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/97cdd71c-7d3e-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">MMT economists</a> were in a distinct minority, warning years before the euro was officially launched that giving up sovereign currencies in favor of a common currency would create default risk and raise the potential for a debt crisis—exactly what happened in countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece. Krugman’s model didn’t help him see that coming, because it didn’t account for the importance of currency regimes in analyzing the limits on government borrowing.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Or what about the budget surpluses during the Clinton years? Or the Bush tax cuts? Or the Trump tax cuts? While MMTers warned that the Clinton surpluses were unsustainable and that the tax cuts posed no risk to the government’s finances, Krugman was talking about deficits driving up interest rates and warning that that the United States could end up like Greece. He <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/11/opinion/paul-krugman-japans-economy-crippled-by-caution.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wrote</a> about being <a href="https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/16/italy-versus-japan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">puzzled</a> by the fact that Japan could borrow at extremely low interest rates, despite having the world’s largest public debt, while the Italian government faced rates that were five times as high, even though their debt-to-GDP ratio was substantially lower. MMTers were never puzzled by the divergence in borrowing costs. To us, the answer was obvious. One country (Japan) was borrowing its own sovereign currency, and the other (Italy) had abandoned its sovereign currency and was now obligated to repay bondholders in a currency (the euro) that it could no longer issue. That’s at the core of MMT: it is about <strong>monetary sovereignty</strong>. If you understand the difference, then you understand that countries with a high degree of monetary sovereignty don’t have to be fearful of deficits raising borrowing costs and pushing a country into bankruptcy. Krugman missed all of this stuff. I believe that after he met Mosler (I have a very nice photo of him holding Mosler’s book), Krugman’s views began to shift. A couple of years after writing about the “puzzling” difference between Japan and Italy, he <a href="https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/19/do-currency-regimes-matter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wrote</a> a piece explaining that currency regimes appear to explain the difference. He was adopting more MMT. In his writings you could see him inching closer and closer to where we had been a decade earlier.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">I’ll give you one more example of a big policy conclusion that I think MMT economists got right and more mainstream <strong>Keynesian economists</strong> got wrong. In November 2017, <strong>Larry Summers</strong> was all over the media warning that if the Republicans succeeded in passing the Trump tax cuts, the United States would end up “living on a shoestring for decades to come.” He warned that Congress would be unable to use fiscal policy in the event of a military crisis or to respond to the next recession. But look where we are. The coronavirus came, and Congress immediately started using fiscal policy to support the economy, adding trillions of dollars to the deficit. This idea that the deficits of the past somehow constrain the ability of Congress to commit to more spending in the present (or future) was just wrong.</p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: But it’s not just economists like Krugman and Summers. Many more heterodox economists agree with your policy conclusions but don’t adopt MMT.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: I have spent literally zero hours of my professional career critiquing the work of other heterodox economists. None. That’s not my interest. I’m out to challenge the mainstream, not my heterodox friends, whether they’re Marxists or institutionalists or post-Keynesians. It is true that we often reach similar policy conclusions, but we get there using different analytical frameworks. Sometimes, I think they arrive at the right conclusion for the wrong reasons. But I don’t go around criticizing them for not adopting our framework.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: The mainstream of the economics profession seems to have moved a lot on the issue of the deficit. Last year the president of the American Economic Association, <strong>Olivier Blanchard</strong>, gave a speech in which he <a href="https://www.piie.com/newsroom/short-videos/olivier-blanchard-benefits-and-costs-public-debt" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">argued</a> that concerns about public debt have been exaggerated; Summers and <strong>Jason Furman</strong> wrote an important anti-austerity piece in <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-01-27/whos-afraid-budget-deficits" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><i>Foreign Affairs</i></a>. Yet one of the premier Keynesian economists of our time, <strong>Robert Skidelsky</strong>, recently wrote in an <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/new-fiscal-constitution-job-guarantee-by-mariana-mazzucato-and-robert-skidelsky-2020-07?barrier=accesspaylog" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">essay</a> with <strong>Mariana Mazzucato</strong> that there is “little evidence that any new fiscal thinking is underway.” How would you characterize the current moment?</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: That line about the lack of new fiscal thinking grabbed me as well. I think there’s a lot of evidence! You cite some of it. Skidelsky, for example, has recently become an outspoken advocate for a job guarantee. And Mazzucato has been doing great work on climate change and the importance of public investment as a catalyst for innovation. She has a new book coming out where, I think it’s fair to say, she treats my arguments in a very sympathetic way. In that same essay, they wrote, “The state must be given a permanent, continuing role in guiding, stabilizing, and if need be, transforming economic life. Intervening only in bad times to fix the system guarantees another crisis.” That is exactly the kind of new thinking we need!</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: You were part of the Biden–Sanders unity task force. They just issued their report. How much of your analysis is embodied in those recommendations? </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: </span>Some. You will see in there a couple of paragraphs about reforming the federal budgeting process. This is crucial if we are going to do something big on climate or infrastructure. The way the budget process currently works is that you send the bill over to CBO, and ask them to score it. CBO then tells lawmakers whether (and by how much) it will add to the deficit and increase the national debt over time.</p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2">This process is designed to elicit the least useful feedback you could possibly ask for. I think we all understand that the incoming administration is going to be facing numerous crises that are going to require the presence of large fiscal deficits for an indeterminate period of time. We cannot afford to return to the “pay for” game, where lawmakers refuse to do anything that adds to the deficit. And so how do you accomplish that? How do you make sure that the incoming administration isn’t hamstrung by “pay as you go” budgeting rules, or CBO, or whatever? Because it will be much harder to pass legislation if Democrats are only willing to do things that will satisfy the scorekeepers over at CBO. The task force recommendations include some language about how to begin to think about alternative metrics by which to evaluate proposed spending. </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: Is the job guarantee in there? </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: No, not a guarantee. But there is some language in there about direct job creation of the kind that was undertaken by FDR in the New Deal. That leans—a little bit—into the MMT proposal for public service employment. I think we’re ultimately going to need something as bold as what MMT advocates, but you could fill jars with the sweat that went into getting the language we got into the recommendations document.</span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Levinson</b>: In the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/74448b70-b144-11ea-a4b6-31f1eedf762e" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span class="s4"><i>Financial Times</i></span></a><i>,</i> <strong>Martin Wolf</strong> said this about your book: “In my view, it is right and wrong. It is right, because there is no simple budget constraint. It is wrong, because it will prove impossible to manage an economy sensibly once politicians believe there is no budget constraint.” </span></p>
<p class="p4" style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><b>Kelton</b>: I thought that was an extraordinary statement. I believe in democracy. MMT is not granting any new powers or authorities to Congress. Congress knows that it has the power of the purse. The idea that MMT is letting the cat out of the bag and somehow opening us up to new vulnerabilities—I just don’t understand. What I think the book does is attempt to clear away the myths and misunderstandings about deficits and debt. If someone confronts their elected representatives and says, “Why aren’t you doing more to get clean water to this district? Or to get infrastructure repaired?” and their representative responds, “I’d love to be able to help on that, but we’ve got this big deficit. And we have this enormous debt that needs to be paid off,” I want people who read the book to understand that this is an evasion. I want people to understand that the deficit and the national debt are not obstacles to progress and that our government can always afford to fund its priorities. The aim of the book is to empower citizens with a truer understanding of what’s possible and what the limits are. Let’s be honest with the people and then hold the politicians accountable at the ballot box.</span></p>
<hr />
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Mark Levinson</strong> is Chief Economist of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the book review editor at <em>Dissent</em>.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Stephanie Kelton</strong> is a professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University. She is a leading expert on Modern Monetary Theory, a former Chief Economist on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and the author of the <em>New York Times</em> bestseller <span class="s2"><i>The Deficit Myth. </i></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">First published on <a href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/monetary-mythbusting-an-interview-with-stephanie-kelton?utm_source=Dissent+Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=ddf2df770c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_The_First_Democratic_Debates_COPY_0&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_a1e9be80de-ddf2df770c-101869473">Dissent</a>.</p>
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